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Mechanical Engineering at University of California-Merced

Merced, CA · Public · Bachelor's Degree

DegreeOutlook Score (Base Case) — assumes in-state tuition

Optimistic

Base Case

Pessimistic

Earnings $67,096/yr (-5% vs median)

AI Risk Very High (53% exposed)

Job Market Large (58,100 openings/yr)

ROI 13.7x earnings multiple (4.3x out-of-state)

Ranked #191 of 320 Mechanical Engineering programs

How AI Changes the Outlook

Three scenarios based on how aggressively AI disrupts the career paths available to Mechanical Engineering graduates.

	Optimistic No Disruption	Base Case Gradual AI	Pessimistic Aggressive AI
10-Year Earnings	$809K	$774K	$670K
Earnings Multiple (In-State)	14.3x	13.7x	11.8x
Earnings Multiple (Out-of-State)	4.5x	4.3x	3.7x
Probability of Field Employment	80%	71%	50%
DegreeOutlook Score	70	69	66

10-Year Earnings Projection

*Year 1 uses actual reported earnings. Scenarios diverge as AI impact compounds over time.

4-Year Tuition, In-State (Sticker)

$56,668

Out-of-state: $179,776 (4.3x ROI)

4-Year Net Price (After Aid)

$50,976

10% less than sticker · See by income

Median Debt at Graduation

$18,498

3.3 months of Year 1 earnings

Reported Earnings (5 Year)

$85,156

27% growth from Year 1

Program Analysis

University of California-Merced's Mechanical Engineering program produces graduates earning $67,096/yr — within striking distance of the $70,527 national average for this field.

The 13.7x earnings multiple means ten-year projected earnings exceed tuition cost by an order of magnitude. By pure financial math, this is a standout.

AI risk is moderate — 53% task exposure — and the 17% scenario spread suggests disruption would dent but not destroy the earnings outlook.

Loan repayment is a non-issue here — $18,498 in median debt clears quickly against $67,096 in annual earnings.

At #191 out of 320 programs, University of California-Merced's financial outcomes for Mechanical Engineering trail the majority of peers. The value case depends on other factors.

The five-year earnings trajectory from $67,096 to $85,156 shows 27% growth, reflecting steady but unremarkable salary progression.

About University of California-Merced

Admission to University of California-Merced is competitive, with 39% of applicants accepted, with a mid-sized student body of 8,372 in Merced, CA. Pell Grant recipients make up 59% of the student body — a marker of economic diversity.

See all programs and financial aid at University of California-Merced →

Top Career Paths

Architectural and engineering managers $167,740/yr

Aerospace engineers $134,830/yr

Engineering teachers, postsecondary $106,120/yr

View all 5 career paths with salary ranges and AI risk →

Compare & Explore

Mechanical Engineering at Other Schools

Other Majors at University of California-Merced

Frequently Asked Questions

How does University of California-Merced's Mechanical Engineering program score?

A score of 69/100 reflects decent absolute metrics, but University of California-Merced trails the majority of Mechanical Engineering programs on relative rankings. Context matters more than the raw number.

How vulnerable is Mechanical Engineering to AI automation?

AI won't 'replace' Mechanical Engineering careers outright, but it is likely to reduce the number of job openings. We model 53% task exposure, which compresses field employment probability in our scenarios.

Scores use College Scorecard earnings, BLS employment projections, and AI task-exposure research. See full methodology →