Mechanical Engineering at Duke University

Durham, NC · Private nonprofit · Bachelor's Degree
65 /100
DegreeOutlook Score (Base Case)
67
Optimistic
65
Base Case
62
Pessimistic
Earnings $89,938/yr (28% vs median)
AI Risk Very High (53% exposed)
Job Market Large (58,100 openings/yr)
ROI 4.2x earnings multiple
Ranked #206 of 320 Mechanical Engineering programs

How AI Changes the Outlook

Three scenarios based on how aggressively AI disrupts the career paths available to Mechanical Engineering graduates.

Optimistic
No Disruption
Base Case
Gradual AI
Pessimistic
Aggressive AI
10-Year Earnings $1,166K $1,094K $897K
Earnings Multiple 4.4x 4.2x 3.4x
Probability of Field Employment 80% 71% 50%
DegreeOutlook Score 67 65 62

10-Year Earnings Projection

*Year 1 uses actual reported earnings. Scenarios diverge as AI impact compounds over time.

4-Year Tuition (Sticker)
$263,220
4-Year Net Price (After Aid)
$137,816
48% less than sticker · See by income
Median Debt at Graduation
$10,000
1.3 months of Year 1 earnings
Reported Earnings (5 Year)
$125,085
39% growth from Year 1

Program Analysis

At $89,938 per year, Mechanical Engineering graduates from Duke University significantly outpace the $70,527 national average for this major, reflecting strong employer demand for this program's graduates.

An earnings multiple of 4.2x means ten-year projected earnings exceed tuition, but not by a dramatic margin. Returns are positive but modest.

Some AI exposure exists in Mechanical Engineering's typical career paths, with 53% of job tasks potentially affected. The pessimistic scenario still projects solid returns, with a 23% gap from the optimistic case.

The median debt load of $10,000 represents less than half a year of starting salary — among the lightest debt-to-income ratios we track.

Ranked #206 of 320 Mechanical Engineering programs, Duke University falls below the median. Stronger options exist, though cost and location may compensate.

Earnings grow from $89,938 to $125,085 over five years — a 39% increase that's moderate and in line with typical career progression.

About Duke University

With just 7% of applicants admitted, Duke University ranks among the nation's most selective schools, enrolling 6,417 students in Durham, NC. After financial aid, the average student pays $137,816 over four years — 48% below sticker price.

See all programs and financial aid at Duke University →

Top Career Paths

Architectural and engineering managers $167,740/yr
Aerospace engineers $134,830/yr
Engineering teachers, postsecondary $106,120/yr
View all 5 career paths with salary ranges and AI risk →

Compare & Explore

Mechanical Engineering at Other Schools

Other Majors at Duke University

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the DegreeOutlook Score for Mechanical Engineering at Duke University?
This program scores 65/100 — a respectable number in isolation, but it ranks in the bottom half of Mechanical Engineering programs nationally. The field is competitive, and stronger options exist.
Will AI replace Mechanical Engineering careers?
With 53% of typical job tasks exposed to AI, this is one of the higher-risk fields. Our pessimistic scenario projects $896,828 in decade earnings vs $1,166,421 in the optimistic case — a meaningful gap.
Scores use College Scorecard earnings, BLS employment projections, and AI task-exposure research. See full methodology →