History at University of California-Merced
Merced, CA · Public · Bachelor's Degree
DegreeOutlook Score (Base Case) — assumes in-state tuition
32
Optimistic
32
Base Case
31
Pessimistic
Earnings
$26,103/yr (-19% vs median)
AI Risk
High (44% exposed)
Job Market
Very Large (188,200 openings/yr)
ROI
7.2x earnings multiple (2.3x out-of-state)
How AI Changes the Outlook
Three scenarios based on how aggressively AI disrupts the career paths available to History graduates.
| Optimistic No Disruption |
Base Case Gradual AI |
Pessimistic Aggressive AI |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Earnings | $397K | $406K | $396K |
| Earnings Multiple (In-State) | 7.0x | 7.2x | 7.0x |
| Earnings Multiple (Out-of-State) | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.2x |
| Probability of Field Employment | 50% | 45% | 34% |
| DegreeOutlook Score | 32 | 32 | 31 |
10-Year Earnings Projection
*Year 1 uses actual reported earnings. Scenarios diverge as AI impact compounds over time.
4-Year Tuition, In-State (Sticker)
$56,668
Out-of-state: $179,776 (2.3x ROI)
Median Debt at Graduation
$15,455
7.1 months of Year 1 earnings
Reported Earnings (4 Year)
$42,305
62% growth from Year 1
About University of California-Merced
Admission to University of California-Merced is competitive, with 39% of applicants accepted, with a mid-sized student body of 8,372 in Merced, CA. Pell Grant recipients make up 59% of the student body — a marker of economic diversity.
See all programs and financial aid at University of California-Merced →Top Career Paths
Natural sciences managers
$161,180/yr
Managers, all other
$136,550/yr
History teachers, postsecondary
$81,500/yr
Compare & Explore
History at Other Schools
Other Majors at University of California-Merced
Explore the Trade Alternative
Not every career requires a four-year degree. Trade programs in related fields can offer competitive salaries with a fraction of the student loan burden.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does University of California-Merced's History program score?
This program scores 32/100 — on the lower end for History. Prospective students should carefully weigh costs against likely earnings.
How vulnerable is History to AI automation?
AI won't 'replace' History careers outright, but it is likely to reduce the number of job openings. We model 44% task exposure, which compresses field employment probability in our scenarios.
Why are History earnings lower at University of California-Merced?
Lower starting pay at University of California-Merced may reflect local labor market conditions rather than program quality. Many graduates see convergence with national averages within 3-5 years.
Scores use College Scorecard earnings, BLS employment projections, and AI task-exposure research.
See full methodology →